Power Systems Modelling

AEP design and develop comprehensive modelling solutions for a wide variety of clients. These models can be bought and used “as-is”; however AEP support and manage the data modelling process in order to provide a turn-key solution to our customers and ensure they extract accurate outputs. AEP combine statistical and financial modelling savvy with real-world power systems experience to ensure that your model paints an accurate reflection of reality.

Past projects include the development of power station financial models for project developers; system viability models for governments; generation expansion models for utilities and regulators, as well as wheeling frameworks for large industrial end-users.

For those clients who prefer to  manage and run the data modelling process for their own on-going needs, AEP will provides the initial model, conduct user training and ensure that the client is able to effectively extract the outputs they need to support their business and project development needs.

Currently AEP offers the following bespoke modelling products available in Microsoft Excel:

Power Stations & Markets

Purpose:
To simulate the financial viability of generation, transmission and distribution sectors under different scenarios.

Application:
The model is useful for policy-makers, utility managers and potential investors in either new plant or existing businesses.

Purpose:
Model detailed financial position of a new or existing power station from financial close to de-commissioning.

Application:
Potential or existing investors can apply the model to assess the financial performance under a range of assumptions. The model can be used to assist in capital raising efforts.

Purpose:
Assist generation portfolio managers and owners to optimise investment decisions across the full range of generating assets. Potential investments (including the repair, refurbishment, modifications or enhancements of existing assets as well as new assets) are assessed at plant, cluster and portfolio levels.

Application:
This is a must have tool for generation portfolio managers who want to optimise investment decisions.

Purpose:
The model tracks the detailed expenditure during the construction period of a power plant project. Both actual and projected costs are captured in the model to allow the user to monitor total project cost. The model incorporates many advanced features such as linking expenditure to a comprehensive range of indices, interest during construction calculation at unit level.

Detailed cost breakdown including:

  • Basic cost (excluding indexation)
  • escalation costs
  • rate of exchange (if applicable)
  • cost of cover (if applicable) and contingencies

In addition the model differentiates clearly between local and foreign expenditure in several different currencies.

Basic cost (excluding indexation) broken down into: original contract cost, approved variations, approved claims, approved counter claims, pending variations, pending claims and potential variation orders and claims The model produces numerous reports to assist costing engineers.

Application:
Cost engineers will find this tool indispensable to track and forecast total power station construction costs.

Purpose:
The model estimates the hourly marginal cost of generation across a portfolio of different generators over an extended period of time typically up to 30 years and beyond. The model is ideally suited to test the economic viability of new generation projects. The high resolution capability of the model allows for the accurate assessment of supply (or demand) options with varying output characteristics including solar wind and various demand side management initiatives.

Application:
Generation expansion planners, procurers of electricity, IPPs and tariff designers have used the model to substantially improve decision making.

Purpose
The purpose of the LRMC model is to estimate future cost of power generation. The model takes a range of inputs into account in determining the anticipated costs, including costs and technical parameters of existing and new power options, the costs of different demand side options, current and future demand for electricity and the demand and supply balance. The model generally works of a pre-defined expansion (or supply and demand integration) plan. The model can also be used in conjunction with the output from the Expansion Planning Model which delivers optimum expansion plans.

Application
The LRMC model has been applied in several countries to estimate the future cost of power generation for a given set or scenario of long range plans. The LRMC results are often used to benchmark current and projected electricity tariffs. It also provides decision makers with a deep insight into future cost trends that is useful in making informed decisions.

Tariffs

Purpose:
Regulated utilities typically use tariff models to support their tariff application. Every tariff application model is custom designed to meet the unique rules and requirements of each market. The Consultant has built several of these models for utilities or regulators. One of the popular tariff models was developed in cooperation with the utility and the regulator. This approach has the advantage that both parties agree with the approach, model structure as well as the interpretation of the tariff methodology.

Application:
The user, which could be a utility, a regulator or both, can use the model to determine tariffs based on the approved tariff determination methodology. The model will also project the utility’s future revenues, which together with a range of cost estimates will produce detailed financial statements which can be used to assess the utility’s viability and sustainability.

Purpose:
Regulators and regulated utilities require a mechanism to perform a structured and substantiated reconciliation of revenues to account for such over or under recovery in a particular year. A spreadsheet reconciliation model has been developed for this purpose and can be integrated into the utility’s price application model. The revenue reconciliation manual serves to describe the reconciliation mechanism and guide the reconciliation process using the model provided.

Application:
Interested parties can utilise the model to determine the amount of over or under revenue recovery against the target revenue requirement. The model, together with the report, guides the user through a structured and transparent process.

Purpose:
Many utilities and regulators recognise the value of time of use pricing. This tool combines several concept including generation expansion planning, marginal costing and cluster analysis to identify cost based time-of-use periods and tariffs.

Application:
The main use of the model is to determine cost reflective time of use periods and prices. The model can also be deployed to assess current time of use prices against a cost based reference to identify adjustments needed to move toward cost reflective tariffs.

Transmission & Power Flow

Purpose:

This custom build model compliments typical network stability studies such as steady state load flow and transient stability studies. Its overarching objective is to examine the reliability and availability performance of a network under many different scenarios. What makes the model very useful and powerful is the fact that it uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques together with DC load flow analysis to develop a deep understanding of the reliability and availability performance of a network under many different scenarios. The input assumptions for each key component (e.g. generator unit, line or customer) are uniquely generated for each scenario based in random numbers in combination with performance probability profiles.

Application:

The results are used by a range of interested parties (including network owners, IPPs, customers and lenders) to assess not only the cost benefit of network strengthening but also the probability of not being able to evacuate (or deliver) power due to network, generator or customer constraints (or a combination).